Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 3.590941 3.914913 4.289627 4.764883 5.367528 6.131841 7.224696
2025-02-02 3.275899 3.708341 4.254875 5.032782 6.189795 8.032848 11.861380
2025-02-09 3.014269 3.483520 4.107486 5.062265 6.653342 9.741896 20.105386
2025-02-16 2.838964 3.331980 4.013585 5.120013 7.162645 12.077648 58.583145
2025-02-23 2.635366 3.114071 3.787511 4.911150 7.094374 13.048864 NaN
2025-03-02 2.525589 3.012592 3.714685 4.933821 7.496612 16.262754 NaN
2025-03-09 2.425259 2.913816 3.631641 4.918592 7.812593 20.410090 NaN
2025-03-16 2.316072 2.793257 3.501515 4.793702 7.814045 23.368219 NaN
2025-03-23 2.271080 2.762076 3.507457 4.922783 8.556412 41.995464 NaN
2025-03-30 2.171987 2.644247 3.363161 4.735049 8.300698 44.880849 NaN
2025-04-06 2.078413 2.530274 3.218096 4.530517 7.940736 42.843115 NaN
2025-04-13 2.009272 2.449845 3.123272 4.417965 7.846255 50.456174 NaN
2025-04-20 1.986718 2.440354 3.147946 4.560498 8.691616 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.980627 2.455406 3.215184 4.808874 10.203902 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.941194 2.416338 3.185449 4.836044 10.858628 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.908301 2.385622 3.167721 4.888461 11.744311 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.845442 2.304894 3.055727 4.698697 11.115635 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.814430 2.273497 3.030635 4.719336 11.803338 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.781070 2.236890 2.993692 4.705474 12.297762 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.737292 2.182036 2.920570 4.591625 12.014012 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.724478 2.176266 2.936854 4.709289 13.656925 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.678234 2.114907 2.847041 4.538055 12.737338 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.631528 2.051887 2.752564 4.350738 11.689960 NaN NaN